Second bout of H1N1 unfounded

Second bout of swine flu

Concerns over the much anticipated "second bout" of the H1N1 virus have been circulating on the periphery of news stories for some time; but with the flu season now officially upon us, reports are surfacing that those cities once flooded in a deluge of swine-flu cases, are now failing to detect any evidence of a resurgence at all.

New York, for instance, the nation's hardest hit city last spring, has reported that flu activity is no higher than normal for this time of year, adding that school attendance remains "normal" too.

But the pharmaceutical industry has struggled since the outbreak of the virus, with delays over vaccine deliveries punctuating the news over recent months, sparking considerable concern over how governments will cope with a second wave of the virus.

Now, despite reports last week from Dr Anne Schuchat, the director of immunization at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), that say "most states do have quite a lot of disease right now," there appears to be a pattern in the areas that had big outbreaks in the spring (such as New York, Boston and Philadelphia) that suggest swine flu is now less prominent.

For instance, officials in New York City now believe that while only 10 to 20 percent of New Yorkers were reported ill with flu last spring, as many as 20 percent to 40 percent may have been exposed to the disease and developed an immunity that has prevented it from spreading.

As such, while the argument that a second bout of the pandemic remains imminent lies in the fact that the flu season will not officially peak until the weather gets much colder, if the current evidence is a precursor for what's really to come, the anticipation surrounding the second wave certainly looks flawed.

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