What If Swine Flu Becomes As Virulent As 1918's Spanish Flu?

Recent deaths from the H1N1 swine flu have led many to believe the virus is getting more and more deadly. However, there are currently no indications the virus is mutating or becoming more virulent.

Influenza pandemics are rare but they are recurrent. In the past century alone, the world has seen three such pandemics that killed millions. To put things in context, as of 6 July 2009, 429 people had died worldwide of swine flu, most with underlying health problems.

In comparison, the last pandemic in 1968 killed more than 30,000 people in the UK alone. The 1968 H3N2 Hong Kong Flu broke out in China in July 1968 and had spread through the world by mid-1969, killing between one to three million people.

Before that, the 1957 Asian Flu which also started in China infected 40-50 percent of the world's population in six months and killed more than one million people. It was caused by a human form of the flu virus, H2N2 that combined with a mutated strain found in wild ducks. The impact was minimised due to the speed the vaccine was made available.

However these pale next to 1918's Spanish Flu pandemic. First reported in America in March 1918, this virus spread rapidly infecting 50% of the world's population by June 1918. It killed between 40-50 million people with second and third waves stretching into 1920 causing further fatalities.

Thus far, the Swine Flu virus is nowhere near as dangerous with 98% of people fully recovering without any hospital treatment, but the fear is that the strain could mutate and pose a greater threat as has happened in the past.

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